US forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by July

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 9, 2024El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster | Reuters+0.1%
• Sep 12, 2024La Nina weather 71% likely to develop in Sept-Nov, says US forecaster | Reuters+3.5%
• Oct 10, 2024US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November-3.9%
• Feb 8, 2024El Nino waning, La Nina to develop in second half of 2024-1.6%
• May 24, 2023The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb-1.7%

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 9, 2024El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster | Reuters+2.7%
• Sep 12, 2024La Nina weather 71% likely to develop in Sept-Nov, says US forecaster | Reuters+4.9%
• Oct 10, 2024US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November-2.6%
• Dec 13, 2023Zimbabwe forecasts huge grain deficit amid El Nino-induced drought | Reuters+1.1%
• May 5, 2023‘Developing’ El Nino may hit India’s maize, soya and rice output, says FAO - The HinduBusinessLine-0.2%

After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.

• Mar 14, 2024US forecaster sees higher chance of La Nina conditions this summer | Reuters+0.5%
• Jun 8, 2023Extreme weather expected as El Nino climate pattern returns, US forecaster says | Reuters-3.7%
• May 5, 2023‘Developing’ El Nino may hit India’s maize, soya and rice output, says FAO - The HinduBusinessLine+1.8%
• Oct 10, 2018Note on developing El Niño conditions end 2018 - beginning 2019 (10 October 2018) | OCHA-0.6%
• Aug 30, 2023From rice to palm oil, Asian crops output forecast lower as El Nino strengthens+1.2%