El Nino waning, La Nina to develop in second half of 2024

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 9, 2024El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster | Reuters+2.7%
• Nov 23, 2021Officially Official, La Nina has Developed-3.9%
• Sep 12, 2024La Nina weather 71% likely to develop in Sept-Nov, says US forecaster | Reuters+4.9%
• Sep 9, 2021La Nina Development Has Potential to Affect Crops in US, South America+1.3%
• Oct 19, 2023El Nino to continue into mid-2024, threatening agriculture+1.0%

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 9, 2024El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster | Reuters+0.1%
• Nov 23, 2021Officially Official, La Nina has Developed-4.5%
• Sep 12, 2024La Nina weather 71% likely to develop in Sept-Nov, says US forecaster | Reuters+3.5%
• Sep 9, 2021La Nina Development Has Potential to Affect Crops in US, South America+1.9%
• Apr 11, 2024This El Nino-to-La Nina Spring is Drier Compared With Analog Years-1.3%

After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Sep 12, 2024La Nina weather 71% likely to develop in Sept-Nov, says US forecaster | Reuters+1.3%
• Sep 15, 2025Flip to El Nino in 2026 Increasingly Confident - Climate Impact Company-1.4%
• Nov 16, 2020La Nina Impact to Continue+1.7%
• Jan 15, 2025Very Dry Last Half of Growing Season Took top End Off US Corn, Soybean Yields+3.2%
• Nov 30, 2023El Niño ahead: Potential disruption to fishmeal supply in 2024-4.6%