La Nina weather 71% likely to develop in Sept-Nov, says US forecaster

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 9, 2025US National Weather Service says La Nina conditions likely to persist through Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 | Reuters-2.2%
• Oct 10, 2024US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November-3.9%
• May 9, 2024El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster | Reuters+0.1%
• May 14, 2026US forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by July | Reuters-1.3%
• Feb 8, 2024El Nino waning, La Nina to develop in second half of 2024-1.6%

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 9, 2025US National Weather Service says La Nina conditions likely to persist through Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 | Reuters-0.9%
• Oct 10, 2024US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November-2.6%
• May 9, 2024El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster | Reuters+2.7%
• May 14, 2026US forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by July | Reuters-0.4%
• Sep 10, 2018New El Niño weather event likely this winter says WMO-3.5%

After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Oct 9, 2025US National Weather Service says La Nina conditions likely to persist through Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 | Reuters+1.3%
• Feb 8, 2024El Nino waning, La Nina to develop in second half of 2024-1.9%
• Mar 21, 2024Argentina downpour 'damaging' for soy and corn, weather analysts say | Reuters-1.4%
• Nov 18, 2021A Return to Normal La Nina Pattern Unfavorable for Argentina, Southern Brazil-4.3%
• Dec 4, 2024La Nina could thwart Argentina's run at bumper crops | Reuters+0.7%