
A U.S. forecaster says El Niño will end by June and La Niña is expected in the second half of 2024. BMI's Sabrin Chowdhury says La Niña could hurt wheat and corn in the US and soybeans, barley, wheat and corn in Latin America.
Expected La Niña drought risk in the US and South America could reduce crop output and support feed grain and oilseed prices. The transition period is seen as a risk for yields.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.