Shift from El Nino to La Nina portends rains in Asia, dryness in Americas

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 9, 2024El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster | Reuters+2.7%
• Nov 13, 2023Ongoing El Nino forecast to bring dry conditions in Southern Africa, SE Asia, Central America and wet conditions in Eastern Africa - Agroportal-0.5%
• Feb 22, 2021Dry weather concerns extend from South America into North America+1.6%
• Sep 9, 2021La Nina Development Has Potential to Affect Crops in US, South America+1.3%
• Nov 14, 2017La Nina - Dryness stops fieldwork in Argentina+0.2%

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 9, 2024El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster | Reuters+0.1%
• Feb 22, 2021Dry weather concerns extend from South America into North America+2.0%
• Sep 9, 2021La Nina Development Has Potential to Affect Crops in US, South America+1.9%
• Nov 14, 2017La Nina - Dryness stops fieldwork in Argentina+2.8%
• Apr 18, 2024IRI Summer Forecast Points to Western Corn Belt Dryness Due to La Nina Influence+1.4%

After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jun 13, 2024La Nina weather 65% likely to develop in July-Sept, says US forecaster | Reuters-2.1%
• Aug 30, 2024Limited Rain for Those in Need in South America+4.1%
• Dec 15, 2022La Nina Pattern Continues Through December for South America-1.1%
• Mar 12, 2021US summer dryness in 2021 favors north central states | World Grain-0.3%
• Nov 14, 2024US forecaster sees 57% chance of La Nina developing between now and December | Reuters-0.5%