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Global forecasters predict a strong El Nino will build in the second half of 2026, threatening hotter, drier weather across much of Asia while boosting rains in parts of the Americas. Japan's weather bureau puts the chance of El Nino emerging in the northern summer at 70%, and India expects below-average monsoon rains for the first time in three years.
A strong El Nino raises the risk of drought-cut grain and oilseed output in Asia and Australia, supporting prices for rice, palm oil and feed grains while shifting South American crop prospects.
reuters.comApr 24, 2026After 179 past bullish weather events, RICE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
