
Vox explains that the El Niño is winding down and shifting toward La Niña, after one of the strongest El Niño events on record. It says the transition will likely bring more extreme weather, including heat waves and hurricanes.
Extreme weather tied to the ENSO shift can disrupt crop production in multiple regions, supporting grain and oilseed prices if drought or heat hits key areas.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.