
India's 2023 southwest monsoon ended with a 6% rainfall deficit, its first below-normal season in four years. About 31% of districts received less than normal rain, with six states recording major deficits during an El Niño year.
Weak monsoon rains reduce Indian kharif crop prospects, raising the likelihood of further export curbs and supporting rice and pulse prices globally.
After 179 past bullish weather events, RICE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.