
India's monsoon ended with a 13% rainfall deficit, causing crop losses in western and southern regions. Low soil moisture and reservoir levels below normal could threaten the Rabi crop and extend supply pressure into 2027.
Expected shortfalls in Indian crops raise the risk of export restrictions and tighter rice and wheat supply, which supports world prices.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.