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India's IMD forecasts below-normal South West Monsoon rainfall for 2026, at about 92% of the long-period average, with a 35% chance of deficient rain. The forecast is attributed to expected El Nino conditions in the second half of the season.
A weak monsoon threatens India's kharif crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds, which could lift Indian import demand and support global rice and vegetable oil prices.
downtoearth.org.inAkshit SangomlaApr 13, 2026After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
