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Forbes India reports that the IMD forecasts 92 per cent of long period average monsoon rainfall for June to September 2026, the lowest first long-range forecast in at least 26 years. It adds that El Niño could develop in the second half of the season, with a 25 per cent chance of a strong event.
A weak monsoon and possible strong El Niño raise the risk of lower Indian kharif output, especially pulses and oilseeds, which could increase import needs and support global oilseed and edible oil prices.
forbesindia.comEnglishApr 24, 2026After 184 past bullish weather events, SBO moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 180 past bullish weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
