
Malaysia's palm oil output is expected to fall for a fourth consecutive month in December as heavy rain disrupts harvesting, according to the industry regulator MPOB. The regulator estimates a 5% to 8% cut in crude palm oil production under normal conditions.
Benchmark futures are already near 2.5-year highs.
Lower Malaysian output tightens vegetable oil supplies and inventories, supporting palm oil and related soy oil prices and adding cost pressure on feed fats.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.