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GAPKI said Indonesia's 2026 crude palm oil output may fall by up to 2 million tonnes from 2025 due to El Nino dry weather and high fertiliser prices. Fertiliser prices have risen about 30% since the Middle East war began, and smallholders may cut application.
A possible multi-million-tonne Indonesian output decline would tighten global vegetable oil supply and support palm and related oil prices.
mpoc.org.myApr 30, 2026
thestar.com.myThe Star OnlineApr 29, 2026After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 30 past bullish weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.6%), and +9.1% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
