
Malaysian crude palm oil futures closed at RM4,486 per tonne on October 23, the highest since July 2022, up 22.6% year to date. Indonesian exports fell to 1.79 million tonnes in September, and Indonesia's output dropped in the first eight months of 2024 due to El Niño effects on yields.
Lower Indonesian exports from El Niño-hit output and the planned B40 biodiesel mandate tighten global palm supply, supporting prices and raising costs for oilseed-based feed ingredients.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.