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Wheat futures have risen nearly 30% year to date, driven by a US drought that pushed output to a 54-year low and global fertilizer shortages linked to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. NOAA gave an 82% chance of El Niño developing from May to July.
Combined drought, fertilizer shortage and El Niño risk support wheat prices and raise feed cost expectations. Traders are drawn into the rally on supply shocks.
finance.yahoo.comKevin GeorgeMay 31, 2026After 30 past bullish weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.6%), and +9.1% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
