War with Iran and dry weather in the US are pushing up US wheat prices, but they are limited by significant supply

After 37 past weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (73% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +5.6% over 20.

• May 31, 2026Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low-21.5%
• Sep 3, 2021US Nola urea barges hit 9 year high with supply tightening post Hurricane Ida+8.6%
• Feb 19, 2021US Gulf urea values recover as gas diversions and production cutbacks bring producers to the market; activity elsewhere limited+1.5%
• Jan 21, 2026Natural Gas Prices Soar as Winter Storm Is Set to Drop Snow, Ice Across Massive Swath of the US - Bloomberg+1.6%
• Feb 23, 2025US natural gas prices surge as La Niña replaces El Niño – Chemicals and the Economy-0.3%

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• May 29, 2018Wheat prices are rising because of the hot and dry weather-7.5%
• May 31, 2026Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low-4.5%
• May 15, 2019The price of wheat in the United States and Europe has increased dramatically+8.5%
• Jan 29, 2025Possible frost damage to crops in the United States supported wheat prices, which are gradually declining+6.0%
• Sep 21, 2026Wheat prices near multi-year highs as war, weather, and harvest shortfalls converge By Investing.com-4.1%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 29, 2018Wheat prices are rising because of the hot and dry weather-0.9%
• May 31, 2026Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low-2.6%
• May 15, 2019The price of wheat in the United States and Europe has increased dramatically+11.2%
• May 13, 2021A"maize"ing global support for wheat prices | The Land | NSW-1.8%
• May 9, 2025Tight Wheat Supply Leaves Prices at Mercy of Any Weather Shocks - Bloomberg-0.1%