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US natural gas prices have surged to about $4.25/mmBtu after collapsing in 2023, as record generator consumption, colder winter weather, faster LNG exports and lower production eliminated surplus inventories. The article links the shift from El Niño to La Niña to colder northern US and European winters.
Higher and more volatile natural gas prices raise ammonia and urea production costs, supporting fertilizer prices, while La Niña-driven cold patterns underline weather risk.
icis.comPaul HodgesFeb 23, 2025After 221 past bullish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -5.2% to +14.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 30 past bullish weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.6%), and +9.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
