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July Nymex natural gas closed up 6.14% on May 28 after a smaller-than-expected EIA storage injection of 92 bcf and hotter US forecasts. Prices reached a 2.5-month high while US production stayed near record levels.
Heat-driven power burn and a storage deficit to expectations lift US gas costs, which raises energy and drying costs for grain and ethanol processors. Record output limits the upside.
After 221 past bullish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -5.2% to +14.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.