
U.S. natural gas prices surged about 26% to $3.91 per mmBtu on Tuesday as a blast of frigid Arctic air raised expected heating demand. A large winter storm was forecast to hit the southern Rockies, Plains and South before shifting toward the East Coast.
Forecast cold and storm-driven heating demand tightens near-term gas supply and lifts prices. Higher gas costs feed through to fertilizer and energy expenses for feed producers.
After 221 past bullish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -5.2% to +14.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 30 past bullish weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.6%), and +9.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.