Frigid weather cut US natural gas output to a preliminary 11-month low of 98.6 bcfd on January 14, down about 9.6 bcfd for the week. Gas demand for heating and power was on track for record highs, and ERCOT warned of possible Texas grid shortfalls and issued a conservation appeal.
Tight gas supply and record power demand push natural gas prices higher, raising energy and fertilizer input costs for feed producers. Grid stress in Texas also signals potential disruptions to regional industrial and feed-processing operations.
After 221 past bullish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -5.2% to +14.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 30 past bullish weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.6%), and +9.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.