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US wheat futures are trading near multi-year highs after briefly testing $700 per bushel in July. The USDA forecast the smallest domestic winter wheat crop since 1965, with Hard Red Winter output in the Plains down 36%, while Australia cut its 2026 harvest forecast by 30%.
Smaller US and Australian crops tighten world supply, while Black Sea disruption adds further upward pressure. Feed buyers face higher wheat and substitute grain costs.
uk.investing.comGarrett CookSep 21, 2026After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Published on the move date, it describes supply shortfalls (smallest US winter wheat crop since 1965, Australian cut) that underpin the rally and plausibly drove buying.
