
Farm Journal agronomist Ken Ferrie says about two-thirds of the Midwest is abnormally dry, with more than half of that already in D1 drought. He advises farmers to keep plans for a large crop while preparing contingency plans for dry conditions.
Farmers keeping high corn population and nitrogen plans would support demand for inputs and feed grain supply, while drought mitigation planning may limit downside yield losses.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 30 past bullish weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.6%), and +9.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.