Raising energy and fertilizer prices and upcoming El Niño main concerns to farming

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 6, 2026Widespread ASAP forecast warnings on crops for second half of the year due to upcoming El Niño conditions - Joint Research Centre+3.3%
• Nov 21, 2022Exceptionally warm autumn raises concerns in the south of Europe - Joint Research Centre+0.2%
• Mar 21, 2022Fair start to spring for most European crops - Joint Research Centre+15.8%
• Sep 4, 2026El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre+1.4%
• Jul 30, 2018IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | July Climate Briefing: Models Continue to Predict El Niño in Coming Months-1.2%

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 8, 2026Agricultural production threatened by combination of El Niño and high input prices - Joint Research Centre-0.9%
• May 6, 2026Widespread ASAP forecast warnings on crops for second half of the year due to upcoming El Niño conditions - Joint Research Centre+1.7%
• Sep 4, 2026El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre+0.5%
• Oct 7, 2026El Niño weather extremes worsen food security in East Africa and Central America and threaten next season crops in Southern Africa and South America - Joint Research Centre-2.4%
• Jul 30, 2018IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | July Climate Briefing: Models Continue to Predict El Niño in Coming Months+1.3%

After 30 past bullish weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.6%), and +9.1% over 20.

• Feb 23, 2025US natural gas prices surge as La Niña replaces El Niño – Chemicals and the Economy-0.3%
• May 31, 2026Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low-21.5%
• Apr 29, 2026Indonesia 2026 crude palm oil output to fall due to El Nino, high fertiliser prices, association says | The Star-9.4%
• Jan 26, 2026Natural gas prices hit $6 as Winter Storm Fern brings extreme cold+1.6%
• Apr 22, 2026Chicago soy rises as oil prices climb, rain forecast threatens Midwest planting - Markets - Business Recorder-0.5%