Widespread ASAP forecast warnings on crops for second half of the year due to upcoming El Niño conditions

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Apr 2, 2026Raising energy and fertilizer prices and upcoming El Niño main concerns to farming - Joint Research Centre-1.7%
• Mar 21, 2022Fair start to spring for most European crops - Joint Research Centre+15.8%
• Sep 4, 2026El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre+1.4%
• Nov 21, 2022Exceptionally warm autumn raises concerns in the south of Europe - Joint Research Centre+0.2%
• Jul 27, 2026Heatwaves impact summer and winter crops - Joint Research Centre-2.0%

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Apr 2, 2026Raising energy and fertilizer prices and upcoming El Niño main concerns to farming - Joint Research Centre-1.6%
• Sep 4, 2026El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre+0.5%
• Oct 7, 2026El Niño weather extremes worsen food security in East Africa and Central America and threaten next season crops in Southern Africa and South America - Joint Research Centre-2.4%
• Nov 13, 2023Ongoing El Nino forecast to bring dry conditions in Southern Africa, SE Asia, Central America and wet conditions in Eastern Africa - Agroportal-0.5%
• Jun 8, 2026Agricultural production threatened by combination of El Niño and high input prices - Joint Research Centre-0.9%