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The EU Joint Research Centre's MARS bulletin cut winter crop yield forecasts by 1-4% after repeated heatwaves shortened grain filling and brought the harvest forward. Summer crop forecasts were reduced across the board, most notably for grain maize and sunflowers (6-7%), and hot, dry conditions are forecast to persist in western Europe.
Lower European wheat, maize and sunflower yields tighten supply for feed buyers and support EU grain prices, with more downside risk to yields if the dry spell continues.
joint-research-centre.ec.europa.euJul 27, 2026After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
