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The EU's JRC ASAP September 2025 assessment flags poor harvest prospects in parts of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. It expects rainfall deficits in October-December in East Africa, North Africa and the Middle East, while southern Africa's winter wheat prospects are mixed.
Dryness in parts of the Andes and North Africa and the Middle East could increase import demand for wheat and feed grains, which supports prices modestly for buyers sourcing from the Black Sea and elsewhere.
joint-research-centre.ec.europa.euOct 8, 2025After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
