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The JRC's November ASAP assessment flags delayed season starts in parts of southern and North Africa and the Middle East, plus drought in the Horn of Africa linked to La Niña. Over 34 million people in the IGAD region face acute food insecurity, and West and central Africa's main season is complete.
Drought in the Horn and delayed seasons in North Africa and the Middle East raise import needs for wheat and feed grains, a modest bullish signal for global wheat and coarse grain demand.
joint-research-centre.ec.europa.euDec 4, 2025After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
