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The EU JRC's March ASAP assessment flags major drought in parts of North Africa and the Middle East, plus drought impacts in southern Africa and concerns over low East African crop production. It cites FAO data projecting near-average 2025 cereal output in southern Africa.
Drought in North Africa and the Middle East can lift import demand for wheat and barley, a modestly supportive factor for global grain prices.
joint-research-centre.ec.europa.euApr 2, 2025After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
