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The JRC MARS Bulletin reports that 1 October to 14 November 2022 was the warmest period in European records since 1991. Warm weather aided winter crop emergence, but southern Europe faces persistent rainfall deficits, delayed sowing and drought concerns in the Maghreb.
Dry conditions in southern Europe and North Africa raise risk to winter cereal yields and Maghreb import demand, a mild upside driver for wheat and barley prices.
joint-research-centre.ec.europa.euNov 21, 2022After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
