El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 7, 2026El Niño weather extremes worsen food security in East Africa and Central America and threaten next season crops in Southern Africa and South America - Joint Research Centre-2.4%
• Nov 13, 2023Ongoing El Nino forecast to bring dry conditions in Southern Africa, SE Asia, Central America and wet conditions in Eastern Africa - Agroportal-0.5%
• Jun 8, 2026Agricultural production threatened by combination of El Niño and high input prices - Joint Research Centre-0.9%
• Apr 17, 2019To manage El Nino-related crop distress in eastern and southern Africa, invest in drought-tolerant seeds and better soil and water care – CIMMYT-1.9%
• Jun 23, 2025Escalating drought threatens Europe's ecosystems and agriculture - Joint Research Centre-1.5%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jul 27, 2026Heatwaves impact summer and winter crops - Joint Research Centre-2.0%
• May 6, 2026Widespread ASAP forecast warnings on crops for second half of the year due to upcoming El Niño conditions - Joint Research Centre+3.3%
• Nov 21, 2022Exceptionally warm autumn raises concerns in the south of Europe - Joint Research Centre+0.2%
• Oct 22, 2022Rains threaten South American wheat | The Western Producer-0.6%
• Apr 2, 2026Raising energy and fertilizer prices and upcoming El Niño main concerns to farming - Joint Research Centre-1.7%