
The EU Joint Research Centre's August MARS bulletin cut EU summer crop yield outlooks due to extreme heat and drought. Grain maize is forecast down 8.6 per cent, soybeans down 9.6 per cent and sunflowers down 5.5 per cent from earlier estimates, and 12 to 16 per cent below the five-year average.
Spain, France, Italy and Germany are among the worst-hit regions.
Lower EU maize, soybean and sunflower output increases import demand and tightens feed supplies, supporting corn, soy and sunflower meal prices. The EU is a major feed importer.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.