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Late-season US Midwest dryness is weighing on corn and soybean yield prospects, with August among the driest on record in Illinois, Missouri and Ohio. Wheat futures rose on short covering, a weaker dollar and strong export demand, and Russia is tripling its export tax.
Yield concerns support corn and soybean prices, while Russia's higher export tax and Asian buying of US wheat tighten wheat export supply and lift prices.
graincentral.comGuest AuthorSep 16, 2025graincentral.comGuest AuthorSep 17, 2025After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
