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Overnight wheat markets rose in the US on wind-driven dust in the Southern Plains and a dry Black Sea region, with the 15-day forecast showing no rain for HRW areas. Russian major wheat regions face a 24% precipitation deficit, and Brazil's soybean harvest is 70% complete, the most advanced in a decade.
Russia's wheat export tax falls to US$28.54 per tonne from US$29.13.
Dry conditions in US HRW and Russian growing areas threaten yields and support wheat prices, while a lower Russian export tax may encourage more Russian shipments and cap gains. Rapid Brazilian soy harvest adds to export supply pressure.
graincentral.comGuest AuthorMar 17, 2025After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Dust storms in the Southern Plains, a dry 15-day HRW forecast and a 24% precipitation deficit in Russia support the supply-risk premium behind the rally.
Reports wind-driven dust in the Southern Plains, no rain in the HRW forecast and a Russian precipitation deficit, which are supply-risk drivers behind the rally, though the report is dated after the move.
