
The Indonesian Palm Oil Association expects crude palm oil prices in 2024 to average about 11% above 2023, near US$1,000 per tonne CIF Rotterdam. It attributes the outlook to El Nino reducing Indonesian output, with the scale of the impact still uncertain.
Expected El Nino-driven output losses in top producer Indonesia would tighten palm supply and support vegetable oil prices, competing oils included.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.