
USDA's final 2024 crop production report showed corn yield at 179.3 bpa, down 3.8 bpa from November, and soybean yield at 50.7 bpa, down 1.0 bpa. Declines were tied to a very dry late growing season in key Corn Belt states.
The yield losses are historically large and reduce supplies of corn and soybeans, supporting feed grain and meal prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.