
The USDA's final weekly crop progress report of the year showed the US corn harvest finishing amid cold, with northern Midwest fields frozen. Planting in Brazil is nearing completion while Argentina faces dry conditions.
Dry conditions in Argentina and a delayed Brazilian crop add supply risk to South American corn and soybeans, which can firm prices, while a finished US harvest offers little new supply pressure.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.