Brazil's soybean sowing for the 2019-20 harvest has officially begun, but forecasts call for practically bone-dry conditions in most growing regions for at least two weeks. Mato Grosso farmers cannot start planting until Sunday, while Parana's window opened Wednesday.
Dry weather threatens both the soybean crop that China relies on and the export-oriented safrinha corn crop, which could tighten world supplies and support prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.