
With 80% of soybeans harvested in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, farmers report yields of 40 sacks per hectare, with some as low as 30. That is well below the 62 sacks per hectare the state achieved in 2022/23.
Hot, dry weather delayed planting and hurt pod filling, and irregular rain is delaying safrinha corn planting.
Sharply lower soybean yields in a major Brazilian state cut export supply and support soybean and meal prices, while delayed safrinha planting adds risk to corn output.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.