USDA Crop Progress data showed corn and soybean planting behind schedule in 17 of 18 key states, with corn 49% planted versus a normal 80% as of May 20. AccuWeather estimates the 2019 corn crop at 14.2 billion bushels and soybeans at 4.1 billion bushels, both below USDA estimates.
Persistent planting delays and below-trend crop estimates point to tighter feed grain and soymeal supplies, which supports prices for buyers.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Planting behind schedule in 17 of 18 key states and lower yield estimates raise US supply concerns, supporting soybean and meal prices.
USDA Crop Progress showed planting well behind schedule and AccuWeather cut yield estimates, which tightens expected supply and supports meal prices.
Planting behind in 17 of 18 states and projections of smaller crops tightened expected supply.