A Nebraska grower reports a late-September heat wave and three weeks without meaningful rain are hurting soybeans, with moisture near 8 percent. Yields are estimated at 75 to 85 bushels per acre, about 10 bushels better than last year.
Heat stress during pod fill in a key state could trim soybean output, modestly supporting soybean and meal prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.