El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell.

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 24, 2023The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb-3.4%
• Aug 1, 2021La Niña climate pattern should return this fall and last through winter. Here's what to expect.+1.0%
• Dec 10, 2019Climate change and the threat to global breadbaskets - IIASA+4.3%
• Apr 14, 2019Will climate change cause food sources to dwindle? | Ort Lab+0.4%
• Jun 26, 2020Climate change could affect the second corn harvest in Brazil - Revista Cultivar+4.6%

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 24, 2023The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb-1.7%
• Aug 1, 2021La Niña climate pattern should return this fall and last through winter. Here's what to expect.+0.5%
• Dec 10, 2019Climate change and the threat to global breadbaskets - IIASA+2.8%
• Dec 18, 2019A Climate Change Double Whammy in the U.S. Corn Belt | Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory+0.8%
• May 10, 2023Argentina's agriculture to recover slowly despite El Niño -grains exchange-6.0%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 24, 2023The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb-2.4%
• Aug 1, 2021La Niña climate pattern should return this fall and last through winter. Here's what to expect.+1.8%
• Dec 10, 2019Climate change and the threat to global breadbaskets - IIASA+2.5%
• Jan 10, 2023What is El Niño, and how does it affect the weather and temperatures?-0.6%
• May 10, 2023Argentina's agriculture to recover slowly despite El Niño -grains exchange-0.6%