El Nino may arrive this summer and fall

After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Aug 10, 2017How will summer drought and this fall’s corn crop affect feeder cattle-4.5%
• May 14, 2020U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer-0.0%
• Feb 17, 2026Climate Prediction Center: La Niña Likely to Fade, El Niño May Develop by Summer - Southeast AgNET-1.0%
• Nov 16, 2023Fall Rains Ease Midwest Drought and Replenish Mississippi River - Farmer Mac+0.0%
• Jun 6, 2025Texas Agriculture • June 6, 2025 • El Niño nor La Niña likely to impact Lone Star State this summer-2.1%

After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.

• May 5, 2023‘Developing’ El Nino may hit India’s maize, soya and rice output, says FAO - The HinduBusinessLine-0.4%
• May 14, 2020U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer+1.3%
• Feb 17, 2026Climate Prediction Center: La Niña Likely to Fade, El Niño May Develop by Summer - Southeast AgNET+0.1%
• Feb 14, 2025The Mississippi River levels are recharging but challenges may still arise for shippers and producers - RFD+0.9%
• Apr 21, 2025El Nino shift: Impact on crop futures and global agricultural outlook+1.3%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Mar 15, 2019El Nino Odds Favorable Through the Summer - ProAg+2.9%
• May 9, 2024El Nino and La Nina | Red River Farm Network+2.0%
• Mar 13, 2026El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown - AgWeb-0.2%
• Oct 24, 2018Hot, dry summer ahead as El Nino sets in - Grain Central-0.3%
• Jun 1, 2023El Nino may hammer Asian farms with dry weather, but shower American growers-3.6%