
The Climate Prediction Center gives La Niña a 60% chance of fading by the end of April and a 60% chance that El Niño develops into summer. A possible El Niño would bring a wetter spring to the Northern Belt, Western Plains and Southeast, and warmer, drier conditions to the Corn Belt.
A mixed Corn Belt outlook, with drier western areas, could add volatility to corn and soybean prices as traders adjust yield expectations. The effect is likely to build gradually.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.