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NOAA's March 14 El Niño advisory shows a strong likelihood the conditions last through spring, with a better-than-average chance of persisting through summer. The US just had its wettest winter on record, and flooding has hit parts of the upper Midwest while only 22% of the country is in drought.
Farm Futures analysts expect El Niño summer and fall conditions to support above-normal US corn and soybean yields, which is bearish for prices, while warming could trim wheat output.
proag.comMar 15, 2019After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
