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Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has raised its El Niño outlook to watch, saying the chance of an event is about double a normal year. Eastern Australia has had a dry start to winter cropping, and farmers still planting may reconsider the risk.
A dry winter crop start in Australia combined with rising El Niño odds could cut eastern Australian wheat and barley plantings. That would support global wheat and barley prices.
farmonline.com.auGregor HeardJun 19, 2018After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
