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A US forecaster says La Niña is over and conditions are now neutral, but dryness is likely in the central and southern US Plains for at least the next month. Dryness is also expected in central Brazil in May and June, and in eastern Europe, Ukraine and western Russia through June.
Dry weather in the US Plains threatens hard red winter wheat development, and Black Sea and Brazilian dryness could tighten wheat and safrinha corn supplies. Those risks support prices, though the forecast is not yet confirmed damage.
reuters.comMar 13, 2025After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
