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Corteva and DTN forecast that El Niño will arrive between May and July and could become a strong event by August, bringing favorable summer weather to most of the U.S. DTN compares the setup to 2023, when early dryness was followed by a wet July and August. Drought covered significant corn, soybean and winter wheat areas in March and remained in place in late spring.
A favorable summer forecast for the Corn Belt would weigh on corn and soybean risk premium, while persistent Plains drought remains supportive for wheat.
corteva.comMay 14, 2026After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
