
Mild, mostly dry weather in the Corn Belt is favoring corn and soybean development, and Illinois winter wheat harvest is 65% complete versus a 24% five-year average. Tropical Storm Cindy is bringing heavy rain to the Gulf Coast, and a heat wave is hitting California and the Southwest.
Good crop conditions in the core Corn Belt reduce weather risk and weigh on corn and soybean prices, while the fast winter wheat harvest adds to near-term wheat supply.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.