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A Farm Progress article reports USDA chief economist Seth Meyer's comments on how La Nina could affect 2022-23 weather, after USDA's March 31 planting report projected 90.9 million acres of US soybeans. Meyer said it is early and the relationships are loose, and more than 70% of the winter wheat crop was in drought.
Weather risk for US soybeans and winter wheat supports prices, but the official view is that the link to the next crop is still uncertain. The effect is a moderate, not decisive, price driver.
farmprogress.comApr 21, 2022After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
