
Iowa climatologist Dennis Todey says planting is well underway and severe weather with heavy rain may occur in the next 7-10 days, though planting delays are unlikely. He notes the El Nino is fading and will likely transition to La Nina by late summer, with warmer summer temperatures expected.
Expected warmer summer temperatures and dry subsoils in parts of Iowa raise the risk of heat stress on crops, which could support corn and soybean prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.